Email predictions for 2015

Welcome to a whole new year. It seems the changing of the year brings out people predicting what they think will happen in the coming year. It’s something I’ve indulged in a couple times over my years of blogging, but email is a generally stable technology and it’s kind of boring to predict a new interface or a minor tweak to filters. Of course, many bloggers will go way out on a limb and predict the death of email, but I think that’s been way over done.
ChangeConstant
Even major technical advancements, like authentication protocols and the rise of IPv6, are not usually sudden. They’re discussed and refined through the IETF process. While some of these changes may seem “all of a sudden” to some end users, they’re usually the result of years of work from dedicated volunteers. The internet really doesn’t do flag days.
One major change in 2014, that had significant implications for email as a whole, was a free mail provider abruptly publishing a DMARC p=reject policy. This caused a lot of issues for some small business senders and for many individual users. Mailing list maintainers are still dealing with some of the fallout, and there are ongoing discussions about how best to mitigate the problems DMARC causes non-commercial email.
Still, DMARC as a protocol has been in development for a few years. A number of large brands and commercial organizations were publishing p=reject policies. The big mail providers were implementing DMARC checking, and rejection, on their inbound mail. In fact, this rollout is one of the reasons that the publishing of p=reject was a problem. With the flip of a switch, mail that was once deliverable became undeliverable.
Looking back through any of the 2014 predictions, I don’t think anyone predicted that two major mailbox providers would implement p=reject policies, causing widespread delivery failures across the Internet. I certainly wouldn’t have predicted it, all of my discussions with people about DMARC centered around business using DMARC to protect their brand. No one mentioned ISPs using it to force their customers away from 3rd party services and discussion lists.
I think the only constant in the world of email is change, and most of the time that change isn’t that massive or sudden, 2014 and the DMARC upheaval notwithstanding.
But, still, I have some thoughts on what might happen in the coming year. Mostly more of the same as we’ve seen over the last few years. But there are a couple areas I think we’ll see some progress made.

  1. ISPs and filtering companies will continue to block spam and protect users from malware.
  2. Senders will continue to get caught in filters, mostly due to their own poor decisions.
  3. Spamhaus will list a major company that decides to take the issue into the court of public opinion instead of negotiating with them quietly. Various journalists and bloggers (myself included) will generate thousands of words of content about this.
  4. Gmail will come up with some new way to display email. Various journalists and bloggers will generate thousands of words of content about this.
  5. AOL will continue to slide into oblivion when it comes to concerns about deliverability.
  6. Hotmail will keep the outlook.com branding, at least until Q2 2016.
  7. Yahoo will have another round of layoffs.

A number of my predictions have to do specifically with DMARC.

  1. Companies will try publishing a DMARC p=reject policy without planning and discover how much mail they send that they don’t actually know about. This will cause unexpected and wholly preventable delivery failures.
  2. The push for DMARC and brand identification in the recipient visible from line will cause some corporate divisions to register new domains for new campaigns because getting a marketing campaign approved through internal DMARC approval processes will be too much work.
  3. In 2016 we’re still going to be arguing the connection between “brand” and “domain name.” No one is going to actually come up with a reasonable answer.

Overall, 2015 is looking to be much like 2014. And 2013. And 2012. Email is email. People still use it. It’s still the best medium for some types of communication. Senders are going to get better. Filters are going to evolve. We’ll all still be employed in a year.
Welcome to 2015. I’m sure something major is going to happen that I didn’t predict there.
 

December 2014: The month in email
Dodging filters makes for effective spamming

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Spammers react to Y! DMARC policy

It’s probably only a surprise to people who think DMARC is the silver bullet to fixing email problems, but the spammers who were so abusing yahoo.com have moved on… to ymail.com.
In the rush to deploy their DMARC policy, apparently Yahoo forgot they have hundreds of other domains. Domains that are currently not publishing a DMARC policy. Spammers are now using those domains as the 5322.from address in their emails. The mail isn’t coming through any yahoo.com domain, but came through an IP belonging to Sprint PCS.
ymail_dmarc
This is just one example of how spammers have reacted to the brave new world of p=reject policies by mailbox providers. If only the rest of us could react as quickly and as transparently to the problems imposed by these policy declarations. But changing software to cope with the changes in a way that keeps email useful for end users is a challenge. What is the right way to change mailing lists to compensate for these policy declarations? How can we keep bulk email useful for small groups that aren’t necessarily associated with a “brand”?
The conversation surrounding how we minimize the damage to the ecosystem that p=reject policy imposed hasn’t really happened. I think it is a shame and a failure that people can’t even discuss the implications of this policy. Even now that people have done the firefighting to deal with the immediate problems there still doesn’t seem to be the desire to discuss the longer effect of these changes. Just saying “these are challenges” in certain spaces gets the response “just deal with it.” Well, yes, we are trying to deal with it.
I contend that in order to “just deal with it”, we have to define “IT.” We can’t solve a problem if we can’t define the problem we’re trying to solve. Sadly, it seems legitimate mailers are stuck coping with the fallout, while spammers have moved on and are totally unaffected.
How is this really a win?

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The more things change

I was doing some research about the evolution of the this-is-spam button for a blog article. In the middle of it, I found an old NY Times report about spam from 2003.

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May 2014: The month in email

It’s been a busy and exciting month for us here.
Laura finished a multi-year project with M3AAWG, the Messaging, Malware and Mobile Anti-Abuse Working Group (look for the results to be published later this year) and continued working with clients on interesting delivery challenges and program opportunities. Steve focused on development on the next version release of Abacus, our flagship abuse desk tool, which will also be available later this year.
And as always, we had things to say about email.
The World of Spam and Email Best Practices
We started the month with a bit of a meta-discussion on senders’ fears of being labeled spammers, and reiterated what we always say: sending mail that some people don’t want doesn’t make you evil, but it is an opportunity to revisit your email programs and see if there are opportunities to better align your goals with the needs of people on your email lists. We outlined how we’ve seen people come around to this position after hitting spamtraps. That said, sometimes it is just evil. And it’s still much the same evil it’s been for over a decade.
We also wrote a post about reputation, which is something we get asked about quite frequently. We have more resources on the topic over at the WiseWords section of our site.
Gmail, Gmail, Gmail
Our friends over at Litmus estimate Gmail market share at 12%, which seems pretty consistent with the percentage of blog posts we devote to the topic, yes? We had a discussion of Campaign Monitor’s great Gmail interview, and offered some thoughts on why we continue to encourage clients to focus on engagement and relevance in developing their email programs. We also wrote a post about how Gmail uses filters, which is important for senders to understand as they create campaigns.
SMTP and TLS
Steve wrote extensively this month about the technical aspects of delivery and message security. This “cheat sheet” on SMTP rejections is extremely useful for troubleshooting – bookmark it for the next time you’re scratching your head trying to figure out what went wrong.
He also wrote a detailed explanation of how TLS encryption works with SMTP to protect email in transit, and followed that with additional information on message security throughout the life of the message. This is a great set of posts to explore if you’re thinking about security and want to understand potential vulnerabilities.
DKIM
Steve also wrote a series of posts about working with DKIM (DomainKeys Identified Mail), the specification for signing messages to identify and claim responsibility for messages. He started with a detailed explanation of DKIM Replay Attacks, which happens when valid email is forwarded or otherwise compromised by spammers, phishers or attackers. Though the DKIM signature persists (by design) through a forward, the DKIM specification restricts an attacker’s ability to modify the message itself. Steve’s post describes how senders can optimize their systems to further restrict these attacks. Another way that attackers attempt to get around DKIM restrictions is by injecting additional headers into the message, which can hijack a legitimately signed message. If you’re concerned about these sort of attacks (and we believe you should be), it’s worth learning more about DKIM Key Rotation to help manage this. (Also of note: we have some free DKIM management tools available in the WiseTools section of our site.)
As always, we’re eager to hear from you if there are topics you’d like us to cover in June.

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